The People Decided

Okay so it's been a while since the General Election, but I figured I'd best write something now since the in-Dail nominations for Taoiseach and Ceann Chomhairle will be taking place this Thursday.



Let's have a quick look at how the parties performed:

Fianna Fail: 78 seats
Fine Gael: 51 seats
Labour: 20 seats
PD's: 2 seats
Greens: 6 seats
Sinn Fein: 4 seats
Independents: 5 seats


Despite an incredible campaign by Enda Kenny, it seems highly likely that Bertie Ahern will be elected Taoiseach for the 3rd consecutive time this Thursday which I think, though I may be mistaken, will make him the longest serving Prime Minister in Europe to date.

The question that still remains however is who will be forming the next government. Realistically speaking, the Fine Gael/Labour lead government is out of the question, as it requires everyone except Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein. So the true question is, who will go to government with Fianna Fail.....

At present, the Greens and FF are in talks on formation of a government. Should these talks succeed, then we will likely have Trevor Sargent serving as Tanaiste and Minister for the Environment. If these talks fail, which is equally as likely as them succeeding, then the next likely goverment will be FF, the PD's and 4/5 Independents, as FF seem unwilling to do a deal with Tony Gregory. The other possibility, though highly unlikely, is a deal with Labour on the basis of stability. However this seems most unlikely as FF will not be keen to dish out 5 cabinet seats to Labour.

Looking at the results, I'll just briefly mention what went right or wrong for each of the parties.

Fianna Fail - opinion polls at the beginning of the campaign suggested they would only make as little as 50 seats. Whether or not the leaders debate gave Bertie Ahern the edge over his rival Enda Kenny is still unclear, but in several polls across different newspapers and surveys, it was evident early on that Bertie Ahern was the preferred man to lead the country ahead of Enda Kenny, the issue of which party would be in government didn't really materialise.

Fine Gael - both a win and a loss. Enda Kenny has done the impossible and restored Fine Gael to the position it was in pre-2002. However, he has failed to convince the public that he is the man that should be leading the country. The main thing Fine Gael can take from this is that come the next election they will be in a much stronger position to enter power.

Labour - arguably unchanged. Many commentators have mentioned that it was perhaps Labour's allegiance to FG that prevented them from making significant gains, that perhaps they should have stood alone as a party. Certainly one part of the strategy that backfired was FG gaining seats from Labour. Thus the overall quota of the combined parties was not as large as it could have been. Ultimately the decision between FF and FG+Lab came down to "Stick with the Devil you know, than the Devil you don't".

PD's - bad election. Coupled with the sudden resignation of Michael McDowell, speculation is flying that this is the end of the party, and members like Mary Harney may step back into FF's shoes. This result is likely due to McDowell's leadership. I don't think he was as "popular" as Mary Harney and his stance regarding Bertie's finances perhaps didn't do him much favours.

Greens - unchanged, though initially they held the balance of power. While they may be winning the student vote in places, they have obviously failed to win the older vote. Their policies on climate change are important and no doubt would form a strong government with FF should talks succeed.

Sinn Fein - not as well as was predicted. SF expected to make gains across the country, in particular the capital, but since have been reduced to just one seat held by Aengus O'Snodaigh in Dublin South Central. Thankfully, people are not bought in by their change of heart in the North, as for me SF will always have the image they have now, and should never ever be considered for government.



I'll write up another thing after Thursday to see how things turn out.

Until then, remember it's payback time at the United Abominations!

~The Damo

Elections & Decisions......

So we have a general election on our hands soon. Unfortunately I wasn't 18 fast enough to get on the register so I was a bit pissed off about that. But you know, as they say, it's better to be pissed off than pissed on.

Why then am I writing this? Well I do have an interest in politics, despite what others may think because I have this habit of declaring "I really don't care!", but politics...I do. The shear humour in politics was only really brought to my attention this year in college, simply because I picked up the two free newspapers every morning. A typical article would start:

"A new report into X services shows that there is a problem with Y, Z and W, and the number of Y's has increased/decreased significantly". Then in every article near the end you would have: "Opposition spokesperson B criticised the government for not solving the problem".

Well, let's face it. I don't think anyone expects the government to solve any problem the day after a report is issued, but you know, its obvious all the Opposition set out to do is ridicule the government. Realistically, the Opposition wouldn't be able to do any better. If Fine Gael and Labour were in government now, would we still have the nurses’ strike? Of course we would, nobody can solve the problem of people asking for more pay for less work. Or we have the issue of hospital beds and waiting numbers in A&E's? It's quite clear that if there was a realistic solution to the problem, then the current government would already have implemented it. We know this government isn't incompetent, as they've lead us through the 10 most prosperous years in the State's history. Looking at the election, all parties have promised 2,000 extra beds. Thanks to the panel, we have learned that this was always an issue. The population grows, people get ill, you're going to have a problem and there's nothing you can do.








Traffic. I believe the current government has set up a purchase of the Toll Gates, so that they can be eventually raised permanently, though not until 2012 I believe. Now the Opposition says they can have them raised next year. Like the hospital situation, I have no doubt that if it was feasible for the current government to raise the tolls, they would. The M50. Will always be a problem, no one is going to be able to solve it. As an aspiring engineer, I absolutely love driving by the Lucan Intersection so I can see the work that’s going on, and let me tell you, it is a real modern solution. Total removal of traffic lights, allowing for free flowing traffic, coupled with the removal of the toll gates (to the right), I do believe the solution will work. Already we have seen that both the Dublin Port Tunnel (ignoring the height mess up) and the LUAS are two other projects which stand to success for the current coalition. I can tell you that travelling on the quays in town in the mornings is really a more pleasant experience now than what it was. The Greens have promised a LUAS for Cork.....WHY??? I am sorry, but Cork with a population the quarter of Dublin is not in the need of any kind of mass transit system. I suppose they'd want a metro aswell.

I really could go on, but you just have to look at each manifesto and see that there is very little difference between any of them. Am I bothered whether Fine Gael and Labour take over? Not entirely, as I'm sure they will do as good a job as Fianna Fail and the PD's did. The only doubt I have with the alternate coalition is their attitude to Shannon. I discussed this issue with Ann Marie; I'm more of a 'be on America's side rather than just piss them off' kind of person. They've only done good things for our economy realistically speaking, and despite the fact that we are officially 'neutral' and all that, they're more our 'allies' than our 'enemies'. I'm also not a huge fan of Labour's pledge to lower voting age to 16...which is ridiculous if you ask me. However I do like their plan for Dublin, including the flat fee for Dublin bus. How much will that cost the state? Who knows? They'll find some other way to tax us anyway.

Do we want two men from Mayo running the country? Or should we stick with Bertie who's one of the ladz?

Time will tell...

~The Damo